Since the March bottom, the "media pundits" have spent considerable time debating whether this is a start of a "new" bull market. What is usually left out of the discussion is any meaningful reference to the long-term Bull/Bear Market Secular high and low cycles. The above graph comes from dshort.com. It is an excellent plot of the long-term bull/bear cycles. As you can clearly see, the peaks and troughs mark the multi-year bull and bear cycles. Many argue that the current March low is a rally in a long-term bear market. This is a reasonable conclusion but at this time there is no way of declaring with 100% certainty that this is the case. Time may ultimately prove that the March low was a true "secular" bear market low. While it is a fun and intellectually stimulating debate, it is ultimately an exercise in futility. Firmly taking a stand either way is a dangerous game. For those who have their hands over their back pockets waiting for the next disaster to come may be waiting forever. For those throwing caution to the wind and going "all in" they could be very disappointed in the overall returns going forward.
As always, a measured risk-adjusted approach will stand whatever the market brings our way.
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