The Pragmatic Capitalist has aggregated the large institutional forecasts for 2010. Simply follow the links.
http://pragcap.com/the-ultimate-guide-to-2010-investment-predictions-and-outlooks
Thursday, December 31, 2009
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
8 Resolutions!!
Credit goes to Gurufocus for this wonderful interview with money manager Jonathan Hirtle. Hirtle published 8 resolutions which provides a framework for investors.
1. I will remember that there is no free lunch. Stock market investing provides returns that are higher than returns from bonds and cash equivalents, because stocks are almost always more risky than bonds and cash equivalents. Periodically that risk is revealed through dislocation. That dislocation is the price I pay for higher returns. I will not commit more assets to stocks and stock-like investments, than I can tolerate during the next dislocation.
2. I will always be skeptical – but never cynical. Skepticism is healthy. Cynicism is not. Doomsday pessimism is just the mirror image of pie-in-the-sky optimism and both are highly unlikely. I will make prudent investment decisions based on likely, not unlikely, outcomes.
3. I will conduct my own due diligence. I will not invest because a friend has, or because recent returns have been high. Most of the best investment strategies in the world are based on common sense. If I can’t understand the investment process, I will not invest.
4. I will stay diversified. No matter how compelling an investment or an investment strategy sounds, I will only believe a little bit. Wealth is created and lost through concentration, and I dare not concentrate in a business or investment where I possess knowledge that is anything short of mastery.
5. I will think of risk in total. That means my operating risk and financial risk, as well as investment risk. Only families and organizations with strong, reliable cash flows and low debt levels can afford to pursue extraordinary returns through a risky investment strategy.
6. I will value my investment portfolio infrequently. Monthly at most. Quarterly is better. Daily valuation aggravates a false sense of gyrating value. Daily pricing has to do with supply and demand – not value. Value is created over long periods of time – a business cycle. I will match my investment horizon to the time it takes to drill new wells, develop new drugs and capture more market share – years, not days or months – and the longer, the better. Successful investing requires careful decisions driven by valuation and process, as well as the discipline to let that process work.
7. I will always care about price. There is no asset that is attractive at any price and there is almost no asset that is not attractive at some price. Price always matters. Price is the trump card. As price increases, risk often increases, so I will use quarterly cash flows to rebalance incrementally.
8. I will never forget the difference between investing and speculating. No matter how many times I hear it on television, I will remember that there is no such thing as a “speculative investor” or even a “short term investor.” Equating investing with speculating is like equating work with gambling. Speculating is not investing. Trading is not investing. Investing is investing. It is solely about acquiring future cash flows at an attractive price – period. If I do not know what price is attractive or if I know that an asset is overpriced, but I expect it to become even more overpriced, then I am speculating, not investing. While I can sometimes make money speculating, its outcome is far more random than that of investing.
1. I will remember that there is no free lunch. Stock market investing provides returns that are higher than returns from bonds and cash equivalents, because stocks are almost always more risky than bonds and cash equivalents. Periodically that risk is revealed through dislocation. That dislocation is the price I pay for higher returns. I will not commit more assets to stocks and stock-like investments, than I can tolerate during the next dislocation.
2. I will always be skeptical – but never cynical. Skepticism is healthy. Cynicism is not. Doomsday pessimism is just the mirror image of pie-in-the-sky optimism and both are highly unlikely. I will make prudent investment decisions based on likely, not unlikely, outcomes.
3. I will conduct my own due diligence. I will not invest because a friend has, or because recent returns have been high. Most of the best investment strategies in the world are based on common sense. If I can’t understand the investment process, I will not invest.
4. I will stay diversified. No matter how compelling an investment or an investment strategy sounds, I will only believe a little bit. Wealth is created and lost through concentration, and I dare not concentrate in a business or investment where I possess knowledge that is anything short of mastery.
5. I will think of risk in total. That means my operating risk and financial risk, as well as investment risk. Only families and organizations with strong, reliable cash flows and low debt levels can afford to pursue extraordinary returns through a risky investment strategy.
6. I will value my investment portfolio infrequently. Monthly at most. Quarterly is better. Daily valuation aggravates a false sense of gyrating value. Daily pricing has to do with supply and demand – not value. Value is created over long periods of time – a business cycle. I will match my investment horizon to the time it takes to drill new wells, develop new drugs and capture more market share – years, not days or months – and the longer, the better. Successful investing requires careful decisions driven by valuation and process, as well as the discipline to let that process work.
7. I will always care about price. There is no asset that is attractive at any price and there is almost no asset that is not attractive at some price. Price always matters. Price is the trump card. As price increases, risk often increases, so I will use quarterly cash flows to rebalance incrementally.
8. I will never forget the difference between investing and speculating. No matter how many times I hear it on television, I will remember that there is no such thing as a “speculative investor” or even a “short term investor.” Equating investing with speculating is like equating work with gambling. Speculating is not investing. Trading is not investing. Investing is investing. It is solely about acquiring future cash flows at an attractive price – period. If I do not know what price is attractive or if I know that an asset is overpriced, but I expect it to become even more overpriced, then I am speculating, not investing. While I can sometimes make money speculating, its outcome is far more random than that of investing.
Wednesday, December 2, 2009
1 YR/3YR Forward Looking Projections with Timing Signals December 09
| I. Commodities: | 1 Yr. | 3 Yr. | Signal | |
| All Commodities | 15.0% | 24.5% | Bull | |
| Oil | 18.0% | 34.0% | Bull | |
| Natural Gas | 27.0% | 43.0% | Bear | |
| Grains | 6.2% | 16.8% | Bull | |
| Industrial Metals | 10.1% | 21.8% | Bull | |
| Gold | -13.2% | -4.4% | Bull | |
| Silver | -0.9% | 13.3% | Bull | |
| II. Fixed Income | | |||
| US Treasuries | -3.2% | 0.6% | Bull | |
| Treasury Inflation Protected | -1.4% | 2.8% | Bull | |
| Corporate Preferreds | 2.4% | 6.8% | Bull | |
| Corporate Bonds | -2.2% | 1.4% | Bull | |
| High Yield Corporate Bonds | 2.3% | 8.6% | Bull | |
| Global Bonds | -5.5% | 3.5% | Bull | |
| Emerging Market Bonds | -5.0% | 6.8% | Bull | |
| III. Global Stocks | | |||
| Global Stocks Ex- US | 12.6% | 22.8% | Bull | |
| Emerging Markets | 2.7% | 15.7% | Bull | |
| IV. US Stocks | | |||
| All US Stocks | 12.2% | 20.6% | Bull | |
| Dow Jones Industirals | 9.3% | 17.0% | Bull | |
| Dow Jones Transports | 12.1% | 22.6% | Bull | |
| SP 500 | 12.4% | 20.6% | Bull | |
| Nasdaq Composite | 6.8% | 16.5% | Bull | |
| Russell 2000 | 15.6% | 25.4% | Bull | |
| V. Special Opportunities | | |||
| US Real Estate | 27.8% | 43.8% | Bull | |
| International Real Estate | 26.0% | 38.0% | Bull | |
Monday, November 9, 2009
This is Pretty Darn Good
I am not a big fan of the general mainstream "Business Magazines", however, this is pretty darn good. In fact it is excellent.
Stocks: Five Market Mistakes to Avoid - BusinessWeek
Mario Tama/Getty Images
Markets may have rebounded in 2009, but individual investors are still edgy and shell-shocked.
Even as the broad Standard & Poor's 500-stock index remained up 56% since March, the U.S. unemployment rate crept above 10%, according to a Labor Dept. report released Nov. 6. "I don't think many people are feeling very relieved," says Milo Benningfield of Benningfield Financial Advisors in San Francisco. Many people believe the "[stock market rally] can't last," he says.
These remain risky times, and the last few years have demonstrated to investors the high cost of doing the wrong thing. Against that nervous backdrop, BusinessWeek asked financial advisers what common mistakes investors are making, and how to avoid them:
1. Don't Jump In All at Once
A little optimism can be a dangerous thing. Individual investors are notorious for selling stocks when markets have already dropped and buying after they have risen. And, says Susan Elser of Elser Financial Planning in Indianapolis, "Selling low and buying high is the worst thing you can do for your returns."
Among those who stayed away from stocks and other risky investments for the past year, many are irked to have missed out on the recent rally. But is now the right time to buy again?
Don't rush back into the market because you worry you've missed the rally. "The biggest mistake is [to try] to make everything up at once," says Micah Porter, president of the Minerva Planning Group in Atlanta.
At these levels, a 10%, 15%, or 20% correction in the stock market is entirely possible at almost any time. So, instead of buying all at once, Porter advises buying stocks gradually over the next year—or, if you have a lot to invest, an even longer time frame. That puts you in the market long-term, but minimizes the chances you'll buy at the market's exact peak.
2. Don't Fall for Fads or Hype
In investing, jumping on the bandwagon is often a bad idea.
For example, television ads have appeared touting gold as an investment after the precious metal's price has jumped higher, approaching $1,100 per ounce on Nov. 6.
Yet this could be the very time when gold prices are at or near their peak. "This is probably the worst time in my opinion to pile into gold," Benningfield says. He also warns against currency speculation, another recent fad. "It's really risky," he says.
Along with other commodities, gold can be a valuable part of investment portfolios. But advisers like Steve Medland of TABR Capital Management in Orange, Calif., suggest keeping gold to less than 5% of your holdings.
Lots of marketing dollars are also pushing equity-indexed annuities these days. "It is the hot product of the day," Elser says. But Elser, Medland, and others warn about the complexity and high fees of these annuities.
3. Don't Use Headlines or Politics as Investing Guides
"Making [an investing] decision based on who is in political office, whether you agree or disagree, is a huge mistake," says Elaine Scoggins, client experience director at Merriman, a Seattle-based investment advisory firm.
Since the election of Barack Obama as President, political temperatures on the right have risen (just as tempers rose among liberals during the last Administration). And that could be leading to bad investing decisions.
Based on their political beliefs, people are buying into disaster scenarios, from high inflation to a crash for the U.S. dollar to skyrocketing tax rates, Scoggins says. "There are a lot of scare tactics in the media and in politics."
Betting your portfolio on these unlikely outcomes can be a big mistake.
"There's incredible fear out there," says Paul Sutherland, chief investment officer at FIM Group in Traverse City, Mich. But not all the fear is warranted. For example, he notes, a weaker dollar actually can help U.S. manufacturing or U.S. firms with overseas profits.
Monday, November 2, 2009
1 Yr./3Yr. Forward Looking Projections w/Timing Signals
| I. Commodities: | 1 Yr. | 3 Yr. | Signal | |
| All Commodities | 14.6% | 24.2% | Bull | |
| Oil | 16.0% | 32.0% | Bull | |
| Natural Gas | 61.0% | 78.0% | Bear | |
| Grains | 7.7% | 18.6% | Bull | |
| Industrial Metals | 11.0% | 22.0% | Bull | |
| Gold | -11.3% | -2.7% | Bull | |
| Silver | -1.0% | 13.4% | Bull | |
| II. Fixed Income | ||||
| US Treasuries | -3.0% | 0.8% | Bear | |
| Treasury Inflation Protected | -0.8% | 3.4% | Bull | |
| Corporate Preferreds | 0.0% | 4.1% | Bull | |
| Corporate Bonds | -2.0% | 1.6% | Bull | |
| High Yield Corporate Bonds | 2.0% | 8.3% | Bull | |
| Global Bonds | -3.7% | 5.3% | Bull | |
| Emerging Market Bonds | -1.8% | 10.0% | Bull | |
| III. Global Stocks | ||||
| Global Stocks Ex- US | 12.6% | 22.8% | Bull | |
| Emerging Markets | 3.3% | 16.3% | Bull | |
| IV. US Stocks | ||||
| All US Stocks | 13.3% | 21.7% | Bull | |
| Dow Jones Industirals | 11.0% | 18.6% | Bull | |
| Dow Jones Transports | 15.2% | 25.7% | Bull | |
| SP 500 | 13.8% | 22.0% | Bull | |
| Nasdaq Composite | 7.8% | 17.5% | Bull | |
| Russell 2000 | 16.0% | 26.0% | Bull | |
| V. Special Opportunities | ||||
| US Real Estate | 24.3% | 40.0% | Bull | |
| International Real Estate | 26.8% | 39.6% | Bull | |
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Zweig Follow-Up Part I
Zweig addresses some very interesting points that are worthy of further discussion:
1. Zweig notes the connection between fear, panic, and the ability to make decisions. We are not talking about nervousness here but real psychological and physical stress. This is the moment where investors lose all decision making capability and any decision made is done to relieve the psychological and physical nature of the stress. Research tells us that decisions made under this type of stress are nearly universally wrong.
2. Decisions made under the above conditions can have a compounding effect which usually goes like this. An investor reaches a state of peak psychological and physical stress and decides to completely convert all investment holdings to cash. The immediate stress relief is enormous and mostly likely the decision will be rewarded in the short-term. Markets may continue to go down, reinforcing the wisdom of the decision and any rebound will take some amount of time, further validating the "right" decision. The compounding effect occurs in that such a decision brings with it an inability to "reengage" with the investment process. At some point in time the market will nearly always "recapture" the bail-out point and in this most recent case, move far beyond. The investor unwillingly now has two poor decisions to wrestle with psychologically, selling at the wrong time and failing to put any money to work at the best time.
3. I feel that one of the most important points I can discuss with you is what I believe is the single biggest mistake investors make and that is "extrapolation". Zweig somewhat touches on the concept when he mentions the emails about "the world coming to an end" crowd. Nearly all the major mistakes made by individual and professional investors alike result from "it is different this time" thinking. I would guess that 90% of the daily media coverage and most of the "Wall St. pundits" commentary revolves around extrapolation. Look no further than the last few years of market history:
Oil would never be low again and would trade near $200, $300, and even $500 per barrel.
Food and food commodities were in short supply and many were expecting food shortages world wide.
Real Estate would never correct. The demographics would continue to overwhelm supply for years to come.
All US banks were insolvent
The market would hit Dow 3000 and possibly lower.
Real Estate would now never bottom.
The economy would never recover and if so would plod along for years, maybe decades.
Luckily there always new "extrapolations around the corner. Currently:
Rampant inflation is 100% guaranteed
Unemployment will never recover
Each and every US consumer is dead regarding future consumption and in debt up to their eyeballs
Gold is going to $3000 or higher
The US dollar will continue to collapse probably past zero.
This is the great depression all over again.
And the beat goes on and on.
1. Zweig notes the connection between fear, panic, and the ability to make decisions. We are not talking about nervousness here but real psychological and physical stress. This is the moment where investors lose all decision making capability and any decision made is done to relieve the psychological and physical nature of the stress. Research tells us that decisions made under this type of stress are nearly universally wrong.
2. Decisions made under the above conditions can have a compounding effect which usually goes like this. An investor reaches a state of peak psychological and physical stress and decides to completely convert all investment holdings to cash. The immediate stress relief is enormous and mostly likely the decision will be rewarded in the short-term. Markets may continue to go down, reinforcing the wisdom of the decision and any rebound will take some amount of time, further validating the "right" decision. The compounding effect occurs in that such a decision brings with it an inability to "reengage" with the investment process. At some point in time the market will nearly always "recapture" the bail-out point and in this most recent case, move far beyond. The investor unwillingly now has two poor decisions to wrestle with psychologically, selling at the wrong time and failing to put any money to work at the best time.
3. I feel that one of the most important points I can discuss with you is what I believe is the single biggest mistake investors make and that is "extrapolation". Zweig somewhat touches on the concept when he mentions the emails about "the world coming to an end" crowd. Nearly all the major mistakes made by individual and professional investors alike result from "it is different this time" thinking. I would guess that 90% of the daily media coverage and most of the "Wall St. pundits" commentary revolves around extrapolation. Look no further than the last few years of market history:
Oil would never be low again and would trade near $200, $300, and even $500 per barrel.
Food and food commodities were in short supply and many were expecting food shortages world wide.
Real Estate would never correct. The demographics would continue to overwhelm supply for years to come.
All US banks were insolvent
The market would hit Dow 3000 and possibly lower.
Real Estate would now never bottom.
The economy would never recover and if so would plod along for years, maybe decades.
Luckily there always new "extrapolations around the corner. Currently:
Rampant inflation is 100% guaranteed
Unemployment will never recover
Each and every US consumer is dead regarding future consumption and in debt up to their eyeballs
Gold is going to $3000 or higher
The US dollar will continue to collapse probably past zero.
This is the great depression all over again.
And the beat goes on and on.
Thursday, October 22, 2009
A Must Read
A hat-tip to Morningstar for an excellent interview with the WSJ's Jason Zweig. Jason is one of the few mainstream financial journalists that tackles the subject of behavior finance, in my opinion the single biggest factor in becoming a successful long-term investor.
http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=312390
Enjoy the article and I will be making an extensive follow-up post shortly.
http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=312390
Enjoy the article and I will be making an extensive follow-up post shortly.
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
Gurus Exposed?
One theme you may have picked up on is my disdain for the economists and analysts thrust upon us by the media. Two self-proclaimed wizards are starting to take some heat and deservedly so.
http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2009/10/rosenberg_rewri.html
http://wallstcheatsheet.com/breaking-news/economy/how-to-save-a-friend-from-the-false-prophet-nouriel-roubini/?p=2804/
Enjoy.
http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2009/10/rosenberg_rewri.html
http://wallstcheatsheet.com/breaking-news/economy/how-to-save-a-friend-from-the-false-prophet-nouriel-roubini/?p=2804/
Enjoy.
Tuesday, October 6, 2009
The Big Picture
Since the March bottom, the "media pundits" have spent considerable time debating whether this is a start of a "new" bull market. What is usually left out of the discussion is any meaningful reference to the long-term Bull/Bear Market Secular high and low cycles. The above graph comes from dshort.com. It is an excellent plot of the long-term bull/bear cycles. As you can clearly see, the peaks and troughs mark the multi-year bull and bear cycles. Many argue that the current March low is a rally in a long-term bear market. This is a reasonable conclusion but at this time there is no way of declaring with 100% certainty that this is the case. Time may ultimately prove that the March low was a true "secular" bear market low. While it is a fun and intellectually stimulating debate, it is ultimately an exercise in futility. Firmly taking a stand either way is a dangerous game. For those who have their hands over their back pockets waiting for the next disaster to come may be waiting forever. For those throwing caution to the wind and going "all in" they could be very disappointed in the overall returns going forward.
As always, a measured risk-adjusted approach will stand whatever the market brings our way.
1 YR./3YR Forward Looking Projections w/Timing Signals October 09
| I. Commodities: | 1 Yr. | 3 Yr. | Signal | |
| All Commodities | 15.3% | 24.9% | Bull | |
| Oil | 24.0% | 40.0% | Bull | |
| Natural Gas | 57.0% | 74.0% | Bear | |
| Grains | 8.5% | 19.7% | Bull | |
| Industrial Metals | 16.0% | 28.0% | Bull | |
| Gold | -10.1% | -1.6% | Bull | |
| Silver | -2.9% | 11.5% | Bull | |
| II. Fixed Income | ||||
| US Treasuries | -3.2% | 0.6% | Bear | |
| Treasury Inflation Protected | -0.4% | 3.7% | Bull | |
| Corporate Preferreds | 0.0% | 4.1% | Bull | |
| Corporate Bonds | -1.9% | 1.7% | Bull | |
| High Yield Corporate Bonds | 2.2% | 8.5% | Bull | |
| Global Bonds | -5.2% | 3.6% | Bull | |
| Emerging Market Bonds | -6.2% | 5.2% | Bull | |
| III. Global Stocks | ||||
| Global Stocks Ex- US | 10.2% | 20.4% | Bull | |
| Emerging Markets | 0.0% | 13.0% | Bull | |
| IV. US Stocks | ||||
| All US Stocks | 11.1% | 19.5% | Bull | |
| Dow Jones Industirals | 9.8% | 17.4% | Bull | |
| Dow Jones Transports | 11.4% | 21.8% | Bull | |
| SP 500 | 12.0% | 20.2% | Bull | |
| Nasdaq Composite | 5.2% | 14.9% | Bull | |
| Russell 2000 | 11.4% | 21.3% | Bull | |
| V. Special Opportunities | ||||
| US Real Estate | 20.5% | 36.2% | Bull | |
| International Real Estate | 25.8% | 38.6% | Bull | |
Friday, September 11, 2009
1 Yr./3Yr. Forward Looking Projections/w Timing Signals September 09
| I. Commodities: | 1 Yr. | 3 Yr. | Signal | |
| All Commodities | 15.7% | 25.4% | Bull | |
| Oil | 23.7% | 40.2% | Bull | |
| Natural Gas | 64.0% | 81.0% | Bear | |
| Grains | 9.8% | 21.0% | Bull | |
| Industrial Metals | 15.0% | 27.0% | Bull | |
| Gold | -10.0% | -1.4% | Bull | |
| Silver | -3.1% | 11.3% | Bull | |
| II. Fixed Income | | |||
| US Treasuries | -2.8% | 1.0% | Bear | |
| Treasury Inflation Protected | 0.1% | 4.3% | Bull | |
| Corporate Preferreds | 0.6% | 4.7% | Bull | |
| Corporate Bonds | -1.3% | 2.3% | Bull | |
| High Yield Corporate Bonds | 3.6% | 9.9% | Bull | |
| Global Bonds | -4.7% | 4.2% | Bull | |
| Emerging Market Bonds | -3.5% | 7.9% | Bull | |
| III. Global Stocks | | |||
| Global Stocks Ex- US | 12.1% | 22.3% | Bull | |
| Emerging Markets | 2.2% | 15.2% | Bull | |
| IV. US Stocks | | |||
| All US Stocks | 12.9% | 21.4% | Bull | |
| Dow Jones Industirals | 11.0% | 18.7% | Bull | |
| Dow Jones Transports | 11.9% | 22.4% | Bull | |
| SP 500 | 13.2% | 21.4% | Bull | |
| Nasdaq Composite | 6.9% | 16.7% | Bull | |
| Russell 2000 | 13.7% | 23.6% | Bull | |
| V. Special Opportunities | | |||
| US Real Estate | 24.6% | 40.4% | Bull | |
| International Real Estate | 27.8% | 40.6% | Bull | |
Thursday, August 6, 2009
1 Yr./3 Yr. Forward Looking Projections/w Timing Signals, August 09
| I. Commodities: | 1 Yr. | 3 Yr. | Signal | |
| All Commodities | 18.3% | 28.1% | Bull | |
| Oil | 28.7% | 45.4% | Bull | |
| Natural Gas | 55.0% | 72.0% | Bear | |
| Grains | 8.5% | 19.9% | Bull | |
| Industrial Metals | 17.0% | 29.0% | Bull | |
| Gold | -6.5% | 2.2% | Bull | |
| Silver | 2.0% | 16.8% | Bull | |
| II. Fixed Income | | |||
| US Treasuries | -3.8% | 0.0% | Bear | |
| Treasury Inflation Protected | -0.5% | 3.7% | Bull | |
| Corporate Preferreds | 0.8% | 4.9% | Bull | |
| Corporate Bonds | -1.6% | 2.0% | Bull | |
| High Yield Corporate Bonds | 2.8% | 9.1% | Bull | |
| Global Bonds | -4.7% | 4.3% | Bull | |
| Emerging Market Bonds | -5.0% | 6.4% | Bull | |
| III. Global Stocks | | |||
| Global Stocks Ex- US | 12.6% | 22.8% | Bull | |
| Emerging Markets | 2.5% | 15.5% | Bull | |
| IV. US Stocks | | |||
| All US Stocks | 12.4% | 20.9% | Bull | |
| Dow Jones Industirals | 10.5% | 18.2% | Bull | |
| Dow Jones Transports | 13.0% | 23.5% | Bull | |
| SP 500 | 12.9% | 21.1% | Bull | |
| Nasdaq Composite | 4.5% | 14.3% | Bull | |
| Russell 2000 | 17.5% | 27.5% | Bull | |
| V. Special Opportunities | | |||
| US Real Estate | 25.7% | 41.1% | Bull | |
| International Real Estate | 30.8% | 43.6% | Bull | |
Saturday, July 25, 2009
1 Yr / 3 Yr Forward Projections w/Timing Signal JUNE 2009
| I. Commodities: | 1 Yr. | 3 Yr. | Signal | |
| All Commodities | 9.1% | 20.2% | Bear | |
| Oil | -7.3% | -25.8% | Bear | |
| Natural Gas | 54.0% | 72.0% | Bear | |
| Grains | 9.0% | 21.0% | Bull | |
| Industrial Metals | -2.4% | -14.7% | Bull | |
| Gold | 6.4% | -2.6% | Bull | |
| II. Fixed Income | | |||
| US Treasuries | -4.0% | -0.1% | Bear | |
| Treasury Inflation Protected | -0.9% | 3.4% | Bull | |
| Corporate Preferreds | -1.7% | 2.6% | Bull | |
| Corporate Bonds | -0.8% | 2.8% | Bull | |
| High Yield Corporate Bonds | 4.5% | 10.8% | Bull | |
| Global Bonds | 4.4% | 18.0% | Bull | |
| Emerging Market Bonds | 2.1% | 15.6% | Bull | |
| III. Global Stocks | | |||
| Global Stocks Ex- US | 20.0% | 32.0% | Bull | |
| Emerging Markets | 5.4% | 18.4% | Bull | |
| IV. US Stocks | | |||
| All US Stocks | 15.1% | 23.6% | Bull | |
| Dow Jones Industirals | 13.2% | 20.8% | Bear | |
| Dow Jones Transports | 20.3% | 30.9% | Bull | |
| SP 500 | 15.3% | 23.6% | Bull | |
| Nasdaq Composite | 11.0% | 21.0% | Bull | |
| Russell 2000 | 17.5% | 27.5% | Bull | |
| V. Special Opportunities | | |||
| US Real Estate | 27.2% | 42.4% | Bear | |
I will post the updated forward looking projections with timing signals at the end of each month. | ||||
Welcome
I have been contemplating establishing some type of method via the internet for interacting with each of you. Nearly everyone has incorporated some type of internet "surfing" into their daily routine and even phone calls now seem "old school". It seems inevitable that I provide a quick and easy avenue for communicating my current market and portfolio related thoughts.
I don't have a defined format or flight plan. I will take topics as they come and hopefully this will become a two way street and a place where I can field all types of questions. So please leave comments. The blog will be private and open only by invitation, but comments will be viewed by the entire community. If you have a colleague, friend, or associate that has interest in such matters and is looking for some help with their portfolio, let me know and I can make arrangements to access the blog temporarily.
I have no idea how often I will generate topics, I don't want to turn this into an obsession or an additional duty assignment. Some topics maybe nothing more than quick observations. The goal is to increase communication, delve into the investment process, and to have some fun.
So off we go.
I don't have a defined format or flight plan. I will take topics as they come and hopefully this will become a two way street and a place where I can field all types of questions. So please leave comments. The blog will be private and open only by invitation, but comments will be viewed by the entire community. If you have a colleague, friend, or associate that has interest in such matters and is looking for some help with their portfolio, let me know and I can make arrangements to access the blog temporarily.
I have no idea how often I will generate topics, I don't want to turn this into an obsession or an additional duty assignment. Some topics maybe nothing more than quick observations. The goal is to increase communication, delve into the investment process, and to have some fun.
So off we go.
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